AGP Executive Report

Restaurant Loyalty Playbook: A Melbourne report says “signature” drinks and “little treat hops” are keeping diners coming back as competition shifts from bar-hopping to repeatable flavor rituals. Inflation Watch: China’s CPI rose 1.2% YoY in May, with core inflation steady, signaling calmer underlying demand. New Openings & Local Food Culture: An Indian restaurant using “traditional” methods opened in Workington, while Hawaii on the Hill’s 10th annual Taste of Hawaii on the Hill drew 100+ local businesses to Washington, D.C. Beverage & QSR Growth: Coca-Cola stock extended gains as Morgan Stanley named it a top beverage pick ahead of the FIFA World Cup; Cava plans to hire 2,500 and open 75+ units in 2026; Wetzel’s is pushing co-branding with Cold Stone to expand footprint. Food Supply & Risk: Beef prices are already pressuring restaurants, and a New World screwworm outbreak in Texas is adding fresh uncertainty for cattle supply chains. Policy & Farming Support: The Philippines will set pre-harvest rice buying benchmarks to protect farmer earnings amid El Niño risk. Sustainability in Food: Rocky Ridge Brewing launched a regeneratively sourced, World Environment Day-linked beer series tied to soil and emissions goals.

Competition Watchdog: Bulgaria’s Commission on Protection of Competition is probing retail-chain pressure tied to the “Care Basket” initiative, after producer groups warned they were told to cut supply prices by 15% or lose business. Food Safety Systems: Qatar’s Ministry of Public Health rolled out a Food Establishments Guide for recall requirements, aiming to standardize traceability, recovery, and incident communication across importers, manufacturers, distributors, and retailers. Sustainable Seafood Push: Chefs Angela Hartnett and Luke Holder helped launch a campaign urging restaurants to remove farmed salmon from menus, citing pollution, disease, and wild-stock impacts. Packaging & Chemicals: Europe is reviewing a German proposal to classify trifluoroacetic acid (a PFAS-related chemical) as a reproductive hazard, reviving scrutiny of PFAS in food-contact packaging. Food Security & Farming: Ghana’s economy grew 6.4% in Q1, with services and industry leading while agriculture remains key for livelihoods and food security. Clean Cooking: Uganda’s Detra Energy says results-based financing is helping households cut charcoal use by switching to more efficient eco-stoves. Trade & Agriculture Policy: U.S. lawmakers want USMCA updates to better support U.S. agriculture, with dairy quota administration and food-safety oversight among the sticking points.

Fertiliser Shock Watch: UK farmers’ union warns Iran-linked shipping disruption is pushing fertiliser prices sharply higher and urges a government “trigger point” support plan while calling for CBAM delays to avoid more food-price inflation. Cold Coffee Boom: India’s youth are making cold coffee an everyday habit, with Nestlé and HUL expanding ready-to-drink formats and vending to scale the category. Rail Food Crackdown: India’s IRCTC moves to shut down unauthorized e-catering operators, citing hygiene and medical-screening gaps and warning passengers to use official channels. Avian Flu Pressure: USDA confirms H5N1 detections in commercial poultry across 12 states, with egg and poultry prices likely to face renewed summer pressure. NZ Agri Investment: New Zealand backs kiwifruit and livestock productivity projects under its Primary Sector Growth Fund, including “more from less” land-use efficiency and virtual-fencing-enabled grazing. F&B Retail Growth: Grab will sponsor onboarding for up to 70 new F&B operators in Singapore, pairing in-app visibility campaigns with merchant training. Food Safety & Packaging: A wave of coffee packaging supplier content spotlights barrier performance and compliance as brands chase sustainability and shelf-life protection.

Food Security Diplomacy: Egypt’s agriculture minister met the World Bank to deepen cooperation on food and water security, smallholder support, climate-smart farming, and market access under the AgriConnect push. Policy Push: Malaysia is moving toward a National Food Security Act to create early warnings, automatic preparedness, and faster input financing, while also exploring cultured meat and tighter honey controls. Budget Consultations: Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif consulted agriculture stakeholders ahead of the 2026–27 federal budget, focusing on seed policy, productivity, and long-term food security. Trade & Exports: The Philippines shipped its first commercial fresh mango consignment to Canada, a milestone for premium tropical fruit exports. Supply Chain Disruption: After a 7.8 quake, two major tuna exporters in General Santos suspended operations; Century Pacific Food targets a return to operations in 1–2 weeks. Food Safety Lens: A World Food Safety Day piece highlights the “One Health” approach and the need for better coordination across human, animal, and environmental health. Retail Pulse: UK retail sales rose in May, with food up on heatwave-driven demand, though energy-cost pressure remains a concern. Beverage/Tech Moves: GoTab acquired Fishbowl to boost hospitality loyalty and guest marketing.

Industrial push in Egypt: Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly toured new production lines and expansions in automotive, pharmaceutical, and food, signaling a push for deeper local manufacturing and export growth. Saffron boom: Market forecasts peg global saffron growth to US$822.07m by 2033 (from US$532.50m in 2026), led by Middle East & Africa with Asia Pacific fastest growth—fuelled by food, wellness, pharma and beauty demand. India beverage shift: FMCG earnings point to beverages outpacing broader categories as coffee, RTD drinks, protein products and low-sugar juices win younger consumers. Food safety pressure: California Proposition 65 enforcement activity is rising over aflatoxins, with food companies urged to tighten supply-chain checks and warning readiness. Climate + food innovation: WFP launched Nepal’s climate innovation accelerator to back startups piloting solar irrigation, clean energy, farmer digital tools and climate-smart insurance. Protein product innovation: Thailand’s Betagro is turning chicken into noodles via extrusion, aiming to ride the protein trend with ready-meal convenience. Beverage tax debate: Nigeria’s LCCI warns Senate SSB tax moves could strain an already pressured manufacturing sector and ripple through the value chain.

Food Safety Push: Ethiopia’s EFDA warned unsafe food still drives illness, citing microbiological risks, heavy metals and adulteration, and urged industry to adopt quality systems plus stronger labs. Protein Powder Crackdown: Texas AG Ken Paxton launched an industry-wide probe into protein powders over heavy metals like lead and cadmium, after third-party tests flagged elevated levels. Agriculture Funding: Bangladesh Bank rolled out a Tk 10,000 crore agri-livestock revolving refinance scheme to boost production and jobs, with low-collateral support for small farmers. Farm-to-School Boost: Minnesota awarded $1.3m+ to expand Farm to School and early care purchases of local foods. Halal Trade Expansion: Indonesia and Bangladesh highlighted halal opportunities beyond food, inviting firms to D-8 Halal Expo 2026 in Jakarta. Packaging & Processing Spotlight: Mexico’s EXPO PACK México drew 18,400 attendees and 740 exhibitors, underscoring demand for food and beverage packaging innovation. Restaurant Cost Control: A new push targets frying oil savings of up to 30% as operators balance healthier menus with margin pressure.

Syndicated Finance: Vietnam’s Masan Group locked in a $750m loan facility with 15 international banks, pricing the 6-year debt at a tight 1.8% margin for refinancing and flexibility. Food Policy Pressure: Nigeria’s Senate advanced a sugar-sweetened beverage tax bill, while the CPPE urged the House to reject it as anti-growth and a tax on production and jobs. Hospitality VAT Fight: UK chefs and Birmingham pubs backed calls to cut VAT on hospitality from 20% to 10%, warning the current rate is “cutting the oxygen off” for restaurants and pubs. Food Safety & Compliance: India’s FSSAI opened recruitment for Group A and C posts via its portal, as regulators also keep pushing safer food handling. Supply Chain Risk: A report warns the world’s breadbaskets face rising odds of simultaneous crop stress as climate change increases the chance of multiple regional failures at once. Consumer Trends: Snack brands are leaning into “intentional grazing,” with protein, fibre and functional ingredients driving smaller, more frequent eating occasions.

Food Safety Push: Oman marked World Food Safety Day (7 June) with renewed focus on traceability and preventive controls across the food chain, aiming to cut foodborne illness and strengthen safer food systems. Policy Pressure on Beverages: Nigeria’s Centre for Private Enterprise urged lawmakers to reject a Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax Bill, warning it could raise costs, prices, and jobs across linked food and beverage value chains. Crisis Relief & Supply: Mexico and Belize sent 1,700 tons of humanitarian food and essentials to Cuba as shortages worsen, continuing a pattern of aid shipments. Livestock Risk Watch: Texas confirmed a New World screwworm case in a calf, prompting a disaster declaration; officials say it’s not a food safety threat but could hit cattle and beef supply. Food Security Projects: Malaysia’s KPDN plans to expand its Ihsan Food Bank programme nationwide with a stronger action plan and broader private-sector participation. Dairy Value Chain: Malaysia’s Jemaluang Dairy Valley targets 4,000 cows and 10 million litres of milk by year three, building a wider dairy ecosystem from farming to processing. Industry Updates: Dietz & Watson launched two new sliced-to-order deli chicken flavors at IDDBA 2026—Heritage Roast and Cantina Chicken. Public Health Context: WHO highlighted unsafe food’s massive toll globally, reinforcing the urgency behind World Food Safety Day efforts.

World Food Safety Day Push: Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari urged stakeholders to promote safe food practices and strengthen compliance across the food chain, highlighting “From burden to solutions – safe food everywhere.” Food Safety on the Ground: Qatar’s MoPH marked the day with hygiene awareness and virtual training, and honoured top performers under its food establishment classification programme; India’s Indore event also targets adulteration detection and safer preparation. Cattle Health Alert: Utah officials said the newly confirmed New World screwworm in Texas poses no immediate public health or food safety risk, but urged vigilance as the parasite threatens livestock wounds. Hospitality Under Pressure: A UK MP is raising hospitality concerns over VAT and “overburden” tax/regulatory pressure after meetings with local hotels. Rice Investment Call: ECOWAS and AGRA urged bigger financing to transform West Africa’s rice sector and strengthen food systems. Energy-Food Link: Coverage ties rising food costs to energy price shocks, with FAO’s food price index up year-on-year. Ingredient Trend: A Malaysian entrepreneur is betting on pandan’s “Vanilla of the East” aroma to break into India’s food market.

Food Safety Push: Qatar’s Ministry of Public Health marks World Food Safety Day 2026 with a “From burden to solutions – safe food everywhere” campaign, plus training and awards for top-performing food establishments. Vendor Crackdown: India’s FSSAI orders Mumbai-area vendors to stop using newspapers for wrapping/serving food, citing ink and hygiene risks. Agriculture Funding Clash: Ghana’s MOFA disputes Finance Ministry claims it received 85% of its 2026 budget, saying releases are only 12.4% as of May 29—former minister Bryan Acheampong warns the breakdown could hit food security. Meat & Dairy Supply Pressure: Qatar’s Al Anaam Factory reports near-6,500 slaughtered animals processed for Eid Al Adha, while Odisha rice millers welcome higher milling charges to ease procurement strain. Automation in Drinks: RobotAnno draws crowds at Shenzhen’s FAIR plus 2026 with 24/7 AI beverage kiosks for coffee, milk tea, cocktails and ice cream. Market & Policy Signals: Philippines inflation cools to 6.8% in May, but basic goods stay costly; Croatia unveils €47m CAP-linked loan lines with up to 50% principal write-offs for farmers and processors. Consumer Culture: Americans report tipping prompts on digital screens feel “ridiculous,” with many saying they feel compelled to tip.

Food Safety Watch: Hawaiʻi DOH cleared Ohana Sub & Deli, Inc. to reopen after a June 4 closure for critical issues like a nonfunctional handwashing sink and insufficient hot water; a June 5 follow-up confirmed repairs and proper sanitizing. Hospitality Cost Pressure: UK pub and restaurant landlords backed a VAT cut campaign, urging the 20% rate to drop to 10% to stop the sector being “crucified.” Restaurant Demand Signals: A National Restaurant Association survey found many consumers still plan to dine out despite higher costs, with two-thirds feeling positive about their finances this quarter. Seafood Export Push: India’s Piyush Goyal set a goal to lift seafood exports from $8.5B to $30B in five years, stressing quality and value-added products over raw shipments. Agri Support & Food Security: Ireland opened a fuel support scheme for specialist horticulture growers as energy costs bite; Nigeria’s extension experts urged better, better-funded agricultural extension systems to strengthen food security. Trade & Biosecurity: Canada will temporarily limit livestock imports from Texas after a confirmed New World screwworm case, citing risk mitigation to protect animal health.

Food Prices Watch: FAO’s Food Price Index eased 0.2% in May to 130.8, but stayed broadly elevated year-on-year as cereal and sugar rose while vegetable oils and dairy fell. Supply Chain & Costs: California farmers and truckers are bracing for higher fuel, insurance, and regulatory pressure, with diesel costs forcing surcharges and squeezing the food transport backbone. Livestock Health Risk: Oklahoma is monitoring after New World screwworm was confirmed in Texas; officials warn any spread could hit cattle numbers and push beef prices higher. Policy & Funding (Ghana): Ghana released GH¢1.677bn to the Ministry of Food and Agriculture (85% of approved spend) under the AgriConnect Compact, while separate claims about disbursements drew pushback over procurement rules. Labeling & Consumer Choice (India): FSSAI will require a standardized green vegan logo on approved vegan packs from July 1, 2027. New Products: Saratoga is launching flavored sparkling water; 5-Hour Energy and Bero rolled out limited-time donut and shandy lines. Industry Growth (Belgium): Cargill invested €56m in Belgium to expand edible oils bottling and gourmet chocolate capacity.

Food Safety & Trade: Fiji has met new EU fish storage and traceability rules after concerns about freezer vessels not reaching -18°C, with tighter tracking to prevent histamine-related scombroid poisoning. Animal Health Threat: The New World screwworm fly has been confirmed in Texas for the first time since 1966, triggering a 12-mile quarantine and USDA containment steps; officials stress the food supply is safe while ranchers brace for major cattle losses. Regulation & Consumer Transparency: India is moving to standardise edible oil pack sizes to improve per-litre price comparisons and level competition amid non-standard 850–950 ml formats. Ultra-Processed Food Scrutiny: A new study links tobacco-era marketing and product tactics to the rise of ultra-processed foods, using Lunchables as a case study. Retail Tech & Privacy: Foodstuffs South Island is extending facial recognition trials to additional New World stores in Christchurch after a three-month test showed fewer repeat incidents. Industry Growth & Investment: ECOWAS and partners are pushing rice self-sufficiency in West Africa by 2035, aiming to unlock public and private financing to cut multi-billion-dollar import dependence. Inflation Watch: Philippines inflation eased to 6.8% in May as transport and food costs slowed, though it remains above the government’s target range. Brand & Product: Hershey’s is launching a new S’mores kit with three flavor combos and a “Heated Debate” campaign.

Animal Health Alert: USDA confirmed a New World screwworm detection in a 3-week-old calf in Zavala County, Texas, triggering quarantines, livestock movement limits, and expanded surveillance—officials stress it’s not a food safety threat but could hit cattle producers if it spreads. Food Security Metrics: Jordan’s food self-sufficiency rose to 61.4% in 2024 (from 57.3% in 2020), with strong vegetable and olive oil surpluses, while wheat and seafood remain heavily import-dependent. Retail & Delivery: Amazon expanded UK online grocery with same-day fresh delivery in parts of London, adding produce, meat, dairy, eggs and frozen foods to existing rapid orders. Hospitality & Tech: Mews polled 750+ hoteliers at Mews Unfold 2026, finding strong enthusiasm for new tech and AI, plus a push toward connected systems that keep more spend inside the hotel experience. Livestock Antibiotics Pressure: FAO research says boosting livestock productivity could cut projected antibiotic use growth by up to 57% by 2040, as antimicrobial resistance targets intensify. Industry Deal Watch: Brown-Forman reported Jack Daniel’s sales decline in the US, though whiskey growth was supported by a new Tennessee Blackberry launch and Woodford Reserve momentum. Trade & Promotion: Georgia’s National Wine Agency backed tastings and masterclasses in Chicago and Miami and supported 14 producers at London Wine Fair 2026, aiming to grow premium exports to the US.

Catering & Hospitality: Clover Food Lab, which abruptly closed all Boston-area vegetarian restaurants, says it has secured an investor deal and will reopen core Cambridge and Boston locations for lunch on June 9, citing inflation and thin margins. Craft Beer: New Zealand’s craft brewing scene is facing a tougher stretch—rising costs, CO2 and keg supply headaches, and weaker pub-going habits—prompting warnings that the “tide is going out.” Beverages & Retail: Wegmans kicks off its “Fill the Bus/Fill the Backpack” scan campaign to fund summer feeding programs at local food banks, with 100% of checkout donations going to partners. Food Safety & Policy: A UN report warns AI could consume up to 3% of global electricity by 2030, with major water and emissions impacts—raising pressure on food and beverage supply chains. Tax & Consumer Impact: Japan’s economy ministry says cutting food consumption tax to 1% from April 2027 is feasible, with retailer system updates taking about 5–6 months. Agriculture & Food Security: Saudi KSrelief signs a Yemen initiative agreement to support farmers and boost food security in Hadhramaut and Socotra.

Dairy Price Squeeze: UK dairy farmers say supermarket pricing leaves them earning far below a living wage, even as retail prices stay high, prompting calls for tougher supply-chain scrutiny. Food Security & Climate Shocks: Iran faces a Moroccan locust outbreak threatening crops and household livelihoods, while broader coverage flags climate change as a growing driver of food insecurity. Agriculture Tech Push: AI is being positioned as a practical tool for precision farming, from weed targeting to better crop monitoring, as producers seek yield gains with fewer resources. Irrigation Expansion: Kenya unveils a roadmap to nearly double irrigated land by 2027/28, aiming to boost maize output and climate resilience. Rice Self-Sufficiency Drive: Ghana maps a 10-year plan to cut its rice deficit via import quotas tied to local partnerships and satellite mapping of rice farms. Dairy Sector Support: Kentucky lawmakers approve major agriculture funding and programs, while research highlights hidden capacity limits in modern pig production. Packaged Food Innovation: Kraft Heinz says it will accelerate innovation next year with a bigger R&D and marketing push, targeting higher-protein and lower-sugar products. EU Catering Rule Change: From August 2026, EU rules will ban single-use ketchup and mayo sachets in restaurants and bars, pushing reusable dispensers.